The probability of adopting the CLARITY Act in 2026 has dropped to 60%, analysts Galaxy Digital warned. The main threat is not a lack of support, but a calendar: there are few working days left in Congress before the August recess, and the document still needs to get 60 votes in the Senate, debate, amendments, and alignment with the House version. If the upper chamber’s leadership does not set aside time for consideration in July, the discussion will almost certainly shift to the autumn, when the law will be confronted with electoral agenda and heightened political competition.

The Senate’s agenda is being overwhelmed by competing priorities: border guard funding, extension of foreign intelligence surveillance powers, and other urgent issues. Sharp divisions remain within the bill itself: Democrats insist on ethics and conflict-of-interest provisions, other groups demand stricter rules on AML and sanction risks. The most sensitive node is the regulation of tokens: the banking lobby opposes the payment of token holding income, fearing an outflow of deposits, whereas crypto companies consider such incentives to be key to the growth of payment products.

The stakes are high for the industry: after years of lawsuits and regulation, businesses are craving predictable rules. The CLARITY Act’s chances could grow if there are three signals early in July: allocated time in the hall, compromise on controversial items, and agreed text between committees. Without it, the first full-fledged federal framework for digital assets in the US risks getting stuck again in the political cycle, leaving the market in a state of uncertainty.