BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has warned that the overheated AI market could be a trigger for broad-based correction of risky assets, including Bitcoin. In a new essay, "The Test of Realism," he acknowledged that he had previously underestimated the AI industry’s ability to attract capital: today, spending on AI competes with cryptoactors for investors' money.

Hayes identified three factors that could "burst the bubble": rising energy prices, difficulties with initial public offerings of companies like SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI, and mounting US President Donald Trump’s criticism of AI. If three "arrows" hit the target, none of these IPOs will go as well as expected. This toxic cocktail calls for the correction of all risky assets , he writes.

The additional pressure is creating uncertainty in the Fed’s monetary policy. Hayes assumes that a negative scenario will lead to lower tech company valuations, worsening credit conditions, and massive asset sales. However, he does not see this as a long-term threat to Bitcoin: financial turmoil, he predicts, will force central banks back into stimulus, triggering a new phase of growth. In this scenario, Hayes describes the formula dump then pump - "first fall, then rise."

Virtually confirming his caution, Hayes reported the withdrawal of almost all Altkoins, including HYPE, NEAR, WLD and ZEC. His briefcase has only Bitcoin and Ether left, and he plans to return to more active investments in high-risk instruments no earlier than September. Previously, in his essay "The Butterfly Effect," he predicted a local Bitcoin bottom at $60,000 and potential growth of up to $126,000 by year’s end.