Bernstein analysts confirmed the $150,000 target for Bitcoin at the end of 2026, noting that the current 54% decline from the historical high is smaller than the 75-90% declines in previous cycles. This, in their view, attests to the sector’s maturity. At the same time, experts have not unequivocally stated that the bottom is reached: the correction continues for three quarters, whereas previously the bear phases lasted 12-15 months.

Net capital inflows from treasury companies and ETFs fell from $60 billion to $10 billion, with $5.5 billion of cash outflows partly offset by $14 billion of Strategy purchases. Analysts have pointed out that with $74 billion in assets under management and more than 50% exchange-rate correction, market sentiment looks worse than the actual data on flows show. This impression is reinforced by the growing concentration of liquidity in AI stocks.

Bernstein questioned the forced sale of Bitcoin by Strategy, predicting that the corporation would remain a net buyer. The company’s debt obligations amount to ~13% of the Bitcoin collateral valuation, and the next payout of ~$1 billion of principal debt is scheduled for Q3 2028; $15 billion in preferred shares have no maturity. For comparison: Citi recently lowered its benchmark for Bitcoin from $112,000 to $82,000 due to delays in the adoption of the CLARITY Act and outflows from the ETF, allowing a drop to $53,000 in the bear scenario.

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The material is prepared solely for informational purposes and does not constitute a financial advice or recommendation.