The thirty-day implied volatility of bitcoin has dropped to 36%, but analysts warn that this does not make the market safer. Adam Hymes, head of asset management at Tesseract Group, noted that low volatility makes it cheaper to open positions, but with a high concentration of bets, hedging market makers can dramatically accelerate price movement. The expert urged not to confuse a lull with a lack of risk and to be careful with leverage. Paul Howard, Senior director of Wincent, pointed to the weakening demand for put options and the lack of aggressive bets on growth, allowing the formation of a price bottom of the cycle in the coming weeks.

Experts cite progress with the CLARITY Act and institutional inflows as growth catalysts, while risks include geopolitical tensions and an inflationary shock. Alphractal analysts noticed that 303 days had passed since the historical maximum, and the drawdown was 48.4%, although the maximum reached 53.1%. Researcher Axel Adler Jr. added that the demand indicator has remained negative for five months now, and the current rebound is "running out of fuel." The question now is not only about the depth of the correction, but also about the time needed to reverse the trend.

Despite the technical weakness, the institutional interest remains. On August 5, spot bitcoin ETFs raised $244.4 million, and Ethereum products raised $60 million. This is the third consecutive session with a net inflow of funds. The situation is also supported by the actions of large holders: previously, CryptoQuant recorded the accumulation of assets by whales. A decrease in volatility often precedes strong impulse movements, so market participants are preparing for a possible exit from a protracted sideways trend.

***

The material has been prepared solely for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice or recommendation.