Bitwise’s chief investment officer, Matt Hougan, believes that crypto is nearing the end of the bear cycle, and the abrupt sale of Strategy’s preferred STRC shares is a typical event for the final stage. In his view, the fall of STRC reflects a de-leverage process that historically accompanies the end of bear phases. Hougan emphasized that Strategy owns ~$50 billion in Bitcoin and $2.6 billion in cash, which is enough to finance the dividend for 28 years even at current prices.

Hougan expects that the next phase of Bitcoin growth will be led by large financial institutions, rather than corporate buyers like Strategy. He cited the launch of a Bitcoin ETF from Morgan Stanley, the inclusion of BTC in Wells Fargo’s portfolios and the creation of a strategic reserve of Bitcoins in Texas. Total net inflows in spot Bitcoin ETFs since 2024 have exceeded $50 billion, indicating growing institutional demand.

To define the market’s bottom, Hougan highlighted three key indicators: trading MSTR shares with a discount to NAV, the decline of the fear and greed index to historic lows, and the shift in Bitcoin financing rates into negative territory.

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The material is prepared solely for informational purposes and does not constitute a financial advice or recommendation.