CryptoQuant platform analysts believe that investors should not try to determine the exact low point of the first cryptocurrency. According to their data, the share of Bitcoin supply in profit has rapidly decreased to fifty‑one and four‑tenths percent. Thus, about forty‑eight and six‑tenths percent of the coins in circulation are currently in a state of unrealized loss. This indicator is determined based on the UTXO model: experts compare the price at which the coin last moved with its current market value. CryptoQuant noted that the indicator was last near fifty‑one percent at the beginning of 2023, when Bitcoin was trading in the range of sixteen to twenty thousand dollars. The current value has also become the lowest level of the asset’s overall profitability in more than three years.

According to experts, the decline in the average cost basis of Bitcoin holders during a bear market reflects a natural shift of coins from investors with a high purchase price to stronger and more patient holders. Under such conditions, some participants realize losses, while long‑term investors can use the decline to gradually accumulate assets. Analysts emphasized that the idea of catching the absolute bottom is mistaken, as the window of opportunity for accumulation may last much longer than most market participants expect. It is precisely during such periods that some investors leave the market due to fear of further price declines. Historically, a decline in the profitability of supply below fifty‑five percent has been inextricably linked to periods of reaccumulation..

Cory Klippsten, CEO of Swan Bitcoin, has shared his own forecast regarding the future dynamics of the market. In his view, the first cryptocurrency may form a local low in October 2026, after which it will begin to recover to approximately $130,000 ahead of the 2028 halving. Klippsten drew attention to Bitcoin’s historical cyclicality, noting that previous local lows of the asset formed approximately twelve months after bull market peaks. Since Bitcoin reached an all‑time high of over $126,000 in early October 2025, October of the following year falls right within this twelve‑month period. At the same time, the expert warned against excessive extrapolation of past cycles, as there is a very limited number of historical observations available for such conclusions. Previously, other analysts also pointed to weak spot demand for Bitcoin and ongoing macroeconomic pressure.

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The material has been prepared solely for informational and educational purposes and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation.