The first cryptocurrency may be approaching the end of its bearish phase, as on‑chain metrics show the first signs of a recovery in spot demand. This is the conclusion reached by experts from the CryptoQuant analytical platform. According to their data, the 30‑day visible spot demand indicator has recovered from minus 26,000 bitcoins as of July 23 to approximately minus 5,000 at present. The metric is very close to becoming positive for the first time since February 26, 2026. Historically, such a reversal has been a fairly strong indicator of subsequent growth: in previous cases, the asset showed a median increase of eighteen and one‑tenth of a percent over the next sixty days, and the probability of the upward movement continuing was seventy‑eight percent. If the exchange rate was significantly lower than the fundamental estimates, the probability increased to eighty‑seven percent. At the same time, CryptoQuant experts warned that the change in demand is a tailwind, not a guarantee, and this process must first be fully completed.

Analysts at Bitfinex Alpha believe that two out of the three conditions required for a full recovery of the first cryptocurrency’s quotes have already been met: expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate have improved, and financial conditions remain relatively soft. Inflation in the United States has fallen from 3.5 percent in June to 3.4 percent in July, and the likelihood of a rate hike in the coming weeks has decreased. At the same time, the decline in yields on short‑term Treasury bonds and the stock market’s growth have increased investors’ appetite for risky assets. However, a third factor is still missing – the flow of capital from traditional markets to cryptocurrencies. According to experts, it is this factor that could become the catalyst for the next phase of growth. For now, the picture remains the opposite: over the past week, US spot Bitcoin funds have lost about $385 million, and the inflow of capital into corporate Bitcoin treasuries has slowed down. In a positive scenario, Bitfinex expects the price to return above $70,000, and if negative flows persist, the next important support zone could be around $57,000.

Wintermute’s experts assessed the current situation more cautiously. They also pointed to the loss of approximately $385 million by U.S. spot Bitcoin funds, which was the largest weekly outflow since the beginning of July. At the same time, Bitcoin showed little reaction to the decline in expectations regarding an increase in the Fed’s interest rate, which is a negative signal for the market, since hopes for a easing of monetary policy usually stimulate demand for risky assets. Analysts believe that the combination of outflows from funds and sales by miners has deprived the market of one of the main sources of new demand. As an example of pressure from miners, experts cited Riot Platforms, which sold 4,300 bitcoins in the second quarter after selling 3,778 coins in the first. Its reserve shrank to 11,380 bitcoins, and the production cost approached 91,000 dollars per coin, which is significantly higher than the current price. This means that some miners are forced to sell their accumulated coins to maintain liquidity and finance operations, and as long as the price remains significantly lower than their costs, supply‑side pressure may persist.

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The material was prepared solely for informational and educational purposes and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation.