The CryptoQuant analyst, under the pseudonym TheChessOnChain, warned that the NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) indicator of the 100-day EMA had come close to the levels that preceded the formation of the market floor in previous cycles. Historically, the zero crossing coincided with the completion of bear phases: in 2011 (~$2), 2015 ($182), 2018 ($3,206) and 2022 ($15,792). It is now around 0.215 at a rate of BTC of ~$63,000, leaving room for further decline.

The expert emphasized that this is a historical pattern, not a mandatory scenario: the indicator may again cross zero, or the current cycle will be the first where the bottom will form without this signal. The NUPL zero line remains a key level for observation in the coming weeks.

In the market, Bitcoin fell to $63,000 after rising to $64,500. The derivatives data show a weakening: open interest on futures fell from 776,000 to 740,000 BTC. Weak spot demand is confirmed by ETF outflows (over $4 billion in June) and the negative performance of the Coinbase Premium index. Previously, analyst Darkfost noted that the Sharpe ratio for BTC also came close to the final phases of bear markets.

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The material is prepared solely for informational purposes and does not constitute a financial advice or recommendation.