Jim Reed, the head of macroeconomic research at Deutsche Bank, has said that AI has unprecedented potential to improve productivity, but will have a noticeable impact on the economy only in a few years after it is fully integrated into business processes. The expert assumed a possible adjustment of AI companies' stock after rapid growth, but emphasized that the long-term impact of technology would be wider than market cycles.

Reed does not expect massive job losses from the development of LLM: in his view, AI will be a tool for improving labor efficiency rather than replacing workers - as were previous technological breakthroughs. But historical experience shows that productivity growth has not led to a sustained decline in inflation, and the development of AI may be accompanied by additional inflationary risks.

According to the consensus forecast of Wall Street, capital spending by major tech companies on AI infrastructure will amount to $527 billion in 2026 (compared to $465 billion expected). However, Goldman Sachs estimates that these investments contribute only about 0.3 BP of real growth and 0.1 BP of measurable effect to GDP growth. Similar observations about the risks of AI-booms to the financial system have been voiced earlier by experts at the Bank for International Settlements.