Deutsche Bank revised its forecast for gold downward, citing the Federal Reserve’s tight position and robust US macroeconomic data. Analyst Michael Xue has set a new baseline target of $4,800 per ounce in the fourth quarter, which corresponds to a "perpetual pause" scenario in the rate cycle. However, a risky scenario with three or four rate hikes could lower the metal’s quotation to $3,800 per ounce.

Investment demand for gold has been negative: after the May employment report, outflows from ETFs continued and open interest in futures reached a 17-year low. Asian markets are under further pressure, with China’s gold premium having been replaced by a discount and India raising its value-added tax on imports of precious metal, limiting physical demand in key regions.

The only supporting factor remains procurement by emerging-market central banks, which continue to increase gold’s share of reserves. However, according to Deutsche Bank, even this demand cannot fully compensate for the weakness of institutional investors. Against this background, the discrepancy between Fed monetary policy expectations and current gold prices is becoming a key driver of volatility in the near term.