Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has entered a critical accumulation phase, as confirmed by key on-chain metrics amid overall market volatility. According to current data, the asset has moved into a price range historically considered optimal for long-term positioning. However, the lack of consensus on strategies among various investor groups is creating an atmosphere of uncertainty regarding the timing and sustainability of a future recovery.

Analysts are focusing on the market value-to-realized (MVRV) ratio, which has fallen into the "opportunity zone"—a range of -18% to -28%. This technical signal traditionally indicates exhaustion among sellers, as most market participants are currently locking in unrealized losses. In past cycles, reaching such levels served as the foundation for a trend reversal, but the current macroeconomic backdrop and liquidity shortage could trigger a protracted consolidation instead of a rapid rebound.

The situation is complicated by a noticeable divergence in holders' behavior: the MVRV Long/Short Difference indicator has entered negative territory, indicating an advantage for short-term speculators. While long-term investors (HODLers) have slowed their accumulation in recent days and begun partially distributing their coins, short-term players are demonstrating a willingness to quickly take profits. This market structure makes Ethereum prices extremely vulnerable to any attempts at growth, as any upward movement risks running into a wall of sell orders from speculators.

On the technical chart, Ethereum is balancing around the psychological $1,983 mark, relying on the critical support level of $1,811. Holding this position is necessary to prevent a decline to the nine-month lows previously recorded at $1,743. If bearish pressure intensifies and current supports are broken, there is a risk of a decline to $1,571, which would pose a serious test of the market structure.

A positive scenario for Ethereum is possible only if strategic buying by major players resumes and short-term traders reduce their activity. The first important barrier for bulls is the resistance level of $2,238; a confident breakout of this level will allow the asset to target an exit above $2,509. Only a consolidation above these levels will finally reverse the dominant bearish scenario and return Ethereum to a phase of sustainable medium-term growth.