European gas wavers near €50 as Iran diplomacy and Norwegian outages pull in opposite directions

5/19/2026, 09:23 AMМария Фадеева

European natural gas prices turned mixed on Tuesday as markets digested the news that US President Donald Trump had paused a planned military strike against Iran following a peace overture from Tehran.

The front-month TTF futures contract at the Dutch gas hub edged up 0.26% to €50.22 per megawatt-hour by 10:13 Moscow time. The UK next-month gas contract moved in the opposite direction, slipping 1.80 pence to 121.50 pence per therm by 09:46 Moscow time.

Prices had already given back earlier gains on Monday evening after Trump announced he was standing down the planned operation, citing what he described as a very promising chance of reaching a deal to limit Iran's nuclear programme. LSEG analyst Yuriy Onyshkov expects TTF to continue trading sideways around the €50 per MWh level, noting that any shifts in White House strategy toward Iran will continue to reverberate across energy markets.

Supply-side factors are adding further complexity to the picture. Norwegian pipeline deliveries to continental Europe are set to decline from Wednesday due to scheduled maintenance at the Kollsnes gas processing plant and the Troll gas field. LNG supply is also expected to tighten, with a halt at the Dunkirk terminal set to cut daily deliveries by 371 gigawatt-hours to 1,668 gigawatt-hours per day.

On the demand side, warming weather across northwest Europe is providing some counterbalance. Temperatures are forecast to rise in the coming days, peaking on May 27 before gradually easing, according to LSEG data.

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