The US debt market demonstrated significant volatility during Thursday's trading session amid the release of key macroeconomic data. US Treasury yields have pared much of their morning gains, which investors had seen earlier in the day. Now, market participants are being forced to quickly revise their strategies, attempting to price in unexpectedly strong domestic labor market data.

During the current session, the yield on benchmark 10-year bonds has adjusted upward by two and a half basis points, settling around 4.611%. It's worth noting that this figure is slightly below the local record set last Tuesday, when yields briefly soared to their highest levels since January 2025. Long-term 30-year US Treasury bonds are showing similar dynamics, with rates rising to 5.139%, also following a recent surge to extremes comparable to the peaks of 2007. At the shorter end of the curve, the yield on two-year notes has strengthened by more than four basis points, reaching a psychologically challenging 4.1%.

Institutional investors are currently focusing their attention on the slope of the yield curve itself, specifically the spread between two-year and ten-year notes, which has settled at 50.9 basis points. This key macroeconomic indicator is traditionally used by experts to assess future business expectations and the likelihood of a recession in the US economy. The current market situation clearly demonstrates the emergence of a complex and unpredictable backdrop for the Federal Reserve's future interest rate decisions.