Analysts at investment firm NYDIG concluded that the recent decline in Bitcoin could not be reduced to a single trigger: market pressure was driven by a mix of macroeconomic and industry factors. In the report prepared for CoinDesk, experts highlighted five key drivers: competition for capital from the AI sector, expectations of a new wave of technology IPOs, regulatory uncertainty, The psychological impact of Strategy’s Bitcoin sales and the growing discussion about quantum threats to cryptography.

In particular, NYDIG notes that Bitcoin has been forced to compete for investment capital with AI-related companies, which have shown steady growth over the past year and a half. At the same time, investors are expecting players like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic to go public, which will also redistribute liquidity. Among the crypto-specific risks, analysts mentioned a statement by the US Treasury Secretary on the confiscation of Iranian cryptoassets, which, even without detailed public information, could undermine confidence in digital asset independence from the traditional financial system.

In the Onekey parts of the report, experts noted that the market had experienced a noticeable "reload", but unambiguous signals of bottom formation were still insufficient. The current decline of 52.7% from peak ($59,750) is significantly lower than 75-90% in previous cycles, and the MVRV ratio has dropped to 1.2. The company assumes that institutional support could change the structure of the cycle - either by mitigating the correction or simply postponing a deeper downturn. The fact that Strategy sold 32 Bitcoines, despite a meager $2.5 million, could have had a psychological impact, as the player had long remained a symbol of unconditional trust in an asset.