Analysts at Galaxy Research have concluded that the current Bitcoin market cycle has not yet reached its minimum. According to the report’s baseline scenario, the price of the first cryptocurrency could fall in the $40,000-$46,000 range. In a pessimistic scenario, amid strong panic, the asset could fall to $30,000-$37,000, whereas an optimistic scenario assumes that cost support would be $51,000-$54,000.

The experts emphasized that the four-year rhythm of the price movement, tied to the halwinam, still works. However, the amplitude of oscillations is steadily declining: each new peak becomes less euphoric, and falls less profound. At a historic high of $124,824 in October 2025, analysts called it the most "calm" in history, owing to the dominance of institutional capital and the launch of spot-based bitcoin ETFs that dampened volatility.

To calculate the bottom, the experts used the realized price, which is now around $53,000. Historically, Bitcoin has dropped below this level by 25-44%, and so far only four of the 13 key bottom indicators have signaled. It is expected that the window to form a minimum will open in the fourth quarter of 2026, 12-13 months after achieving ATH. Galaxy warned that a panic sale could lower the actual price by pushing support levels even lower.