Glassnode analysts noted that Bitcoin remains in the bear zone, as its prices remain 15% below the true average market price of $77,200. The Oncheen meters show net capital outflows, with realized capitalization down 1.45% to $1.07 trillion in the last 90 days. Short-term holders also remain in loss - the MVRV ratio for this group has risen to 0.9 but is below a critical point of 1, as their average purchase price is $72,600. To enter the bull phase, the price should lock above $77,200 and realized capitalization should return to growth.

Despite the bear trend, analysts note an improvement in spot liquidity and a decline in demand for hedge pools. Expected volatility has normalized, falling from 65% to 35%, and signs of forced sales are disappearing. Price declines in May-June were linked by experts to the "military premium," which began to falter after news of a geopolitical détente. But the market remains fragile: on June 18, Bitcoin fell below $64,000 again, responding to the Fed’s "hawk" rhetoric under new head Kevin Worth. The further recovery will depend on liquidity inflows and buyers' ability to maintain current levels.

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The material is prepared solely for informational purposes and does not constitute a financial advice or recommendation.