Analysts from the authoritative publication The Kobeissi Letter have conducted a comprehensive study of historical data over the past two decades and revealed a pronounced seasonality in gold's behavior. According to their calculations, July and August are traditionally the most successful months for this precious metal, marking the beginning of the most favorable period for investors. Statistics show that over the last twenty years, gold has confidently risen by an average of one and a half percent in July, demonstrating positive dynamics in sixty-five percent of cases, with the most record-breaking being the year 2020 with a growth of over ten percent. August shows even more impressive results with an average price increase of one and a half percent, while June, conversely, is historically considered the weakest and most unsuccessful month for the asset, confirming the start of a powerful seasonal trend that plays into the hands of buyers.

This seasonal factor takes on special significance against the backdrop of fundamental macroeconomic shifts and unprecedented records set by the precious metal this year. It is worth recalling that back in January 2026, an ounce of gold for the first time in history broke through the psychologically important mark of five thousand dollars, and according to the European Central Bank, this asset for the first time in modern history surpassed United States government bonds in its share of global international reserves. Central banks around the world continue to aggressively build up their gold reserves, seeking to diversify assets and protect themselves from currency risks. However, against this backdrop, some major financial institutions, such as JPMorgan, have decided to revise their forecasts, lowering their expectations for the price of an ounce by the end of the year to four and a half thousand dollars due to potential cooling of demand and risks of an early Federal Reserve rate hike.

The strengthening of gold's position inevitably has a direct impact on the sentiments of cryptocurrency market participants, as a fierce competition remains between the first cryptocurrency and the precious metal for the status of the main safe-haven asset in investor portfolios. Discussions about which exactly better preserves value in an era of geopolitical turbulence are only intensifying. For instance, analysts at Wintermute recently noted that against the backdrop of global tension, Ethereum, Nasdaq indices, and physical gold showed more stable and confident dynamics compared to Bitcoin. At the same time, optimistic views remain in the camp of the first cryptocurrency's bulls: individual JPMorgan experts are convinced that in the long term, the growth potential of Bitcoin remains significantly higher than that of traditional gold, making both of these assets extremely important elements of the modern global financial system.

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The material is prepared solely for informational purposes and does not constitute a financial advice or recommendation.