Analysts at the investment company Grayscale believe that the current downward trend of bitcoin may be nearing completion, provided that the current monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve System and the stability of macroeconomic indicators are maintained. The head of the analytical department, Zach Pendle, noted that the traditional theory of four-year cycles based on halving events is gradually losing its predictive accuracy. If the historical pattern persists, the final formation of the market bottom may occur only in September or October 2026. However, the company is leaning towards a macroeconomic approach, according to which bitcoin is being transformed into a mature asset, whose value is increasingly correlated with economic growth and real interest rates, similar to other large asset classes.

This position is confirmed by independent market research. Analysts of the CryptoQuant platform have recorded one of the fastest recoveries in demand in the futures market this year, as well as the process of redistributing coins from short-term owners to long-term investors. Alex Thorne, head of the Galaxy Digital research unit, added that the large-scale wave of movement of previously accumulated bitcoins, which was observed in previous years, has almost ended. This circumstance significantly reduces the potential selling pressure on the market, creating more favorable conditions for the stabilization of quotations and the gradual restoration of investment interest.

Despite the presence of positive signals, the market continues to experience some pressure. According to CryptoQuant, a significant proportion of short-term bitcoin owners are currently recording losses, and the net outflow of funds from spot exchange-traded funds in 2026 reached 120,000 coins, which remains the main deterrent. At the same time, Grayscale experts separately commented on the recent sale of bitcoins by Strategy in the amount of about $ 216 million. According to them, this step is not a negative indicator, but on the contrary, it can strengthen confidence in the financial model of the organization and contribute to the formation of a more stable market bottom.

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The material has been prepared solely for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice or recommendation.