India is tightening its stance on prediction markets, where users trade on the outcomes of real-world events. According to CoinDesk, Polymarket has gone dark in the country, while local media reports suggest Kalshi could be next as authorities move toward formal blocking action.

The issue comes down to how Indian regulators view these platforms. Polymarket and Kalshi describe prediction markets as information and trading venues, but authorities appear to treat them closer to event betting. Users can trade probabilities on politics, sports, markets and public events, placing the products near India’s stricter rules on online gaming and wagering.

The pressure has been building for weeks. Indian officials had already been examining how users access blocked prediction-market sites through VPNs, with the country’s IT secretary acknowledging that separating legitimate VPN use from prohibited access is technically difficult.

For Polymarket and Kalshi, India could have been a major growth market thanks to its large retail trading base, crypto-aware users and high engagement around political and sports events. But the crackdown shows the central challenge for prediction markets globally: expansion will depend not only on user demand, but also on whether regulators classify these platforms as financial infrastructure or gambling-style products.