Goldman Sachs has adjusted its oil price forecast for the second quarter following a temporary de-escalation of tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. The bank now expects Brent crude to average approximately $90 per barrel, while WTI is projected to average around $87.

The revision stems from a reduction in the geopolitical risk premium following an agreement between the U.S. and Iran to observe a two-week pause. Analysts believe that shipments through the Strait will begin to gradually recover, and exports from Persian Gulf nations will return to normal volumes within a month.

At the same time, the bank left its medium-term oil outlook unchanged. Forecasts for Brent remain steady at $82 and $80 per barrel for the third and fourth quarters, respectively, while WTI forecasts remain at $77 and $75. Goldman emphasizes that market risks remain tilted to the upside, as the truce remains fragile and potential disruptions to production and logistics could persist.

Concurrently, the short-term forecast for the European TTF natural gas benchmark for the second quarter was lowered from €70/MWh to €50/MWh. However, this segment also retains the risk of renewed price spikes in the event of delays in LNG shipments or damage to infrastructure.