The investment company Galaxy Digital has revised its forecast on the adoption of the draft law CLARITY: the probability of passing the document in 2026 is reduced from 75% to 60%. Head of the research department Alex Thorn explained the adjustment by narrowing the time window: The Senate should have time to review and agree on a text before the start of the monthly recess in July, after which the chances of advancing major initiatives ahead of the midterm elections plummet.

The key obstacle remains the lack of progress in negotiations: provisions on ethics and countering illicit financing continue to be divisive among legislators. The law requires at least 60 votes in the Senate to enter into force without much debate, but current dynamics do not allow for a reliable prediction of reaching this threshold.

Galaxy Digital allows the forecast to be revised upward if the Senate commits to passing the bill in the next month and agrees on controversial points. Meanwhile, analysts of other major players remain skeptical: JPMorgan estimates the chances of CLARITY below 50%, and Bitwise investment division head Matt Hougan has also voiced a negative scenario. The outcome of the fight to regulate digital assets in the US remains questionable.