The lower house of Japan’s parliament has approved a bill that equates cryptocurrencies with financial instruments such as stocks. The key change for investors is to reduce the capital gains tax from its current maximum of 55% to a fixed rate of 20% (tax adjustments will come into effect in 2028). The law does not apply to stablecoins, which are regulated separately.

At the same time, the instrument tightens regulations by imposing stock-market-comparable penalties for insider trading and increasing the maximum prison term for illegal crypto sellers from three to ten years. The new rules are expected to force some of the country’s 27 existing exchanges out of the market due to trade complications, but will pave the way for spot crypto ETFs that may emerge next year.

This will shift the focus of institutional investment away from "cryptocurrency" firms (like Metaplanet) toward classical exchange-traded funds. According to the Nomura survey, about 80% of Japanese institutions plan to invest in crypto in the next three years, and the share of optimists has risen from 25% to 31%. As QCP Group spokesperson Koichi Cano pointed out, if the crypto was once compared to regular football where rules were blurred, it is now "American football", and "we all need helmets."