J.P. Morgan has revised downward its forecast for Brent oil prices for the second half of 2026. The bank’s analysts cited a less pronounced reduction in commercial inventories and weaker demand dynamics than previously assumed. According to updated estimates, the average Brent price will be $86 per barrel in the third quarter, $80 in the fourth quarter, and will fall to $78 by the end of the year.

The J.P. Morgan analysis notes that the oil market is rebalancing, but this is due to a less favorable combination of factors: demand losses have been larger than predicted and reserves in OECD countries have declined more slowly than expected. This reduced the upward pressure on quotes. The current volume of oil flows is about 8.6 million barrels per day, and in June the average reached 6.3 million barrels per day, markedly exceeding the levels of April and May.

Analysts have noted structural changes in market behavior: private operators have largely abandoned self-depletion of inventories, switching to the use of oil from state strategic reserves to keep NPEs running. The Bank expects that OECD reserves will be reduced by another 50 million barrels between April and July.