JPMorgan analysts have identified two key factors that will shape Bitcoin's price dynamics in the second half of 2026: Strategy's ability to fund $1.7 billion in dividend obligations and the legislative fate of the U.S. CLARITY Act, which regulates stablecoin yield.

According to the bank, Strategy will need to cover its $1.7 billion commitments through available liquidity, capital market access, operating cash flow, asset sales, or additional financing. Experts emphasize that the question is not the size of the company's Bitcoin reserves, but the viability of its crypto accumulation model itself. During periods of deteriorating market conditions, investors traditionally focus more on debt loads, shareholder obligations, and capital dilution risk.

JPMorgan believes that a transparent funding strategy from Strategy could ease market concerns about forced Bitcoin sales or raising capital on unfavorable terms. Conversely, uncertainty could negatively affect investor sentiment toward companies using cryptocurrency as a reserve asset.

Regarding the CLARITY Act, its passage could not only clarify U.S. crypto market regulations but also strengthen industry confidence and support corporate capital inflows. However, if consideration of the initiative is delayed, investors may revise expectations about the emergence of a clear regulatory framework—potentially weakening appetite for risk assets and slowing the recovery of inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Notably, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon previously criticized the CLARITY legislation, stating that the banking community will continue to oppose the initiative because it grants crypto companies competitive advantages over traditional financial institutions.