Against the backdrop of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket have officially surpassed traditional United States sportsbooks in trading volume. In June, trading volume on Kalshi exceeded thirty-one billion dollars, representing a seventy percent increase from May, with sports contracts accounting for eighty-five percent of the platform's total turnover. The international platform Polymarket also set a new monthly record, reaching ten point eight billion dollars, while its regulated US version gathered three point five billion dollars. The combined trading volume across all prediction markets during the tournament reached approximately fifty billion dollars. For comparison, the research firm Eilers & Krejcik had projected prior to the tournament that legal US sportsbooks would take in bets totaling only between two point eight and four point three billion dollars for all one hundred and four matches.

This colossal growth was accompanied by a massive influx of new users. According to data from the analytics firm Apptopia, by the end of June, the number of daily Kalshi users had grown by thirty-six percent compared to the middle of the month. This significant surge was facilitated by the platform's official partnership with FIFA, through which the service was actively promoted alongside the Fox Sports network. Against the backdrop of this boom, user activity on traditional betting applications such as DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and Caesars dropped by thirty-two to forty-one percent following the initial spike in tournament interest. Furthermore, Kalshi and Polymarket accounted for seventy-eight point five percent of all new installations among the top six betting and prediction market applications, whereas their combined share a year earlier was merely around six percent.

In addition to the market leaders, the joint project between the Robinhood exchange and Susquehanna International Group, named Rothera, made a significant contribution to the overall turnover by processing two billion dollars. However, this rapid shift of capital and user attention to the new sector has raised serious concerns among traditional industry players. Recall that as recently as June, American gambling associations officially urged the United States Senate to ban prediction platforms related to sports and gambling, attempting to protect their market share from the rapid expansion of decentralized and regulated alternatives. Nevertheless, current statistics clearly demonstrate that consumers have already made their choice in favor of more flexible and transparent forecasting tools.

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The material is prepared solely for informational purposes and does not constitute a financial advice or recommendation.