A global aluminium rally could drive a fresh surge in Chinese exports, as weak domestic demand leaves more metal available for overseas buyers. According to Chinese customs data cited by SMM, exports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium semis reached 598,000 tonnes in April, up 15.4% from a year earlier and 23.3% from March. That was one of the strongest monthly readings since late 2024.

The key driver is the widening gap between global and Chinese prices. Aluminium on the London Metal Exchange is trading at a sharp premium to Shanghai futures after the conflict in the Middle East disrupted supply from a major producing region. As a result, international buyers are turning more actively to China, especially for products such as aluminium rods used in power grids and alloys used in wheel rims.

Zhu Liangmin, an analyst at Beijing Aladdiny Zhongying Business Consulting, estimates that Chinese exports could reach a record 680,000 tonnes in the coming months. That remains a forecast, not a confirmed outcome. The outlook depends on whether supply tightness outside China persists and whether Chinese smelters face production curbs tied to energy-use and emissions targets. For the market, China may help ease the shortage — but it may not fully replace disrupted Gulf supply.