The Middle East conflict has generated additional revenue for Russia from commodity sales

4/3/2026, 07:16 AMДмитрий Летов

The military conflict surrounding Iran has led to a sharp rise in commodity prices, generating significant additional revenue for the Russian economy. This is primarily due to the rise in Urals crude oil prices, which, amid disruptions in supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, reached over $90 per barrel.

However, the effect extends beyond oil. The price increase has also affected aluminum, fertilizers, gas, and grain. Restrictions on supplies from the Persian Gulf have increased demand for alternative sources, allowing Russia to strengthen its position in global commodity markets.

According to Bloomberg News sources, if high prices persist through the end of the year, additional oil revenues could reach up to $40 billion. Even if the conflict is quickly resolved, this could mean multibillion-dollar budget support and excess revenues exceeding $10 billion. At the same time, Western buyers are showing growing interest in Russian metals, partially changing the structure of foreign trade.

However, the potential for profit is limited by domestic risks, such as attacks on infrastructure and export restrictions. Nevertheless, the overall effect of the conflict remains positive for the country's raw materials sector.

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