The Middle East conflict will drive up global inflation

3/4/2026, 06:08 AMДмитрий Летов

The conflict in the Middle East, particularly the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, is pushing up oil and gas prices. A fifth of the world's seaborne crude oil passes through the strait, and its near-total shutdown has already pushed Brent crude prices to $80 per barrel.

Half of economists in a Bloomberg survey believe inflation will accelerate in the US and the EU. About 40% of respondents expect prices in China to rise by up to 0.9%. Fuel, airfare, and shipping costs will also increase.

If the strait is closed for more than 25 days, oil prices could soar above $100 per barrel. Citi Bank sees a potential rise to $120 per barrel if strikes hit oil facilities. Analysts don't expect a change in global GDP growth, but economists are unsure whether the conflict in the Middle East will last.

Popular news

The Middle East conflict will drive up global inflation | News