The Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics has pointed to signs indicating the possible onset of a recession in the United States. This conclusion is based on a specialized indicator that reflects the state of the labor market.

The indicator in question is the "Vicious Cycle Index" (VCI), which assesses changes in the labor force participation rate. According to analysts' calculations, the index has been signaling the start of an economic downturn since the beginning of the year.

The indicator takes into account not only unemployment but also individuals who have ceased actively looking for work, thereby allowing for a more accurate assessment of underlying issues within the labor market. According to experts, the metric has remained at a level characteristic of a recession for several consecutive months.

At the same time, current employment data remains mixed: despite an increase in the number of jobs in March, a contraction had been recorded previously, and the overall trend points to a slowdown in the labor market. Economists note that the probability of a recession in the near term remains high, particularly when taking into account geopolitical factors and their impact on the economy.