Bitcoin retains the potential for further decline, despite a deep correction that has already occurred. This is the conclusion reached by PlanB, who noted that key market indicators do not yet confirm the completion of the bear cycle. As of June, Bitcoin lost 20.5% of its value and closed at $58,526 - the worst monthly result since June 2022. The price also fell below the $62,000 rolling average of 200 weeks.

PlanB recalled that in previous bear cycles, the global market floor was formed only after Bitcoin fell below its realized price - the average level of purchase of all coins in circulation. This onchein indicator is often used to estimate the potential price bottom during prolonged downturns. On this basis, the analyst does not rule out a further decline in prices to $52,000. If this scenario is realized, the fall from a historic high of $126,000 would be about 60%. By comparison, Bitcoin lost about 83% of its value in 2018, and fell to 76% in 2022.

PlanB emphasized: Bitcoin already looks undervalued, but this does not guarantee an immediate market turnaround. During the capitulation of investors, the price may temporarily fall below the realized value, as occurred in past cycles. Bitrue Research Institute researcher Andry Fauzan Adziima believes that the current market picture is largely a repeat of previous cycles. He predicts that the final capitulation of market participants could occur towards the end of 2026, after which there will be preconditions for a new bull trend. But the next cycle is expected to be less volatile, owing to an increasing share of institutional investors.

***

The material is prepared solely for informational purposes and does not constitute a financial advice or recommendation.