A report published by Axios regarding a potential geopolitical deal between the US and Iran triggered an immediate and massive reaction across the American stock market. In just fifteen minutes following the release of this news, the aggregate capitalization on Wall Street expanded by nearly 350 billion dollars. However, the crypto market flagship, bitcoin, demonstrated a completely opposite trajectory, shedding more than three percent of its value over the past 24 hours.

The drafted 60-day memorandum, negotiated by the US delegation led by Steve Witkoff and Iranian representative Abbas Araghchi, aims to extend the current ceasefire agreement. The document outlines crucial concessions, including the initiation of new talks on the nuclear program paired with the destruction of enriched uranium, the clearing of naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, and a partial lifting of the US maritime blockade to restore safe merchant shipping. Despite the euphoria surrounding the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices, the agreement is not yet legally finalized, as Donald Trump has taken a few days to evaluate the terms, while in Tehran, Mojtaba Khamenei has not yet given his consent. Furthermore, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent cooled investor expectations by emphasizing that strict sanctions and restrictions on Iranian airlines will remain effective until the official signing, and any attempts to collect transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz via intermediaries like Oman will be harshly suppressed.

This profound decoupling, highlighted by BTC losing over 5% within a week while stocks hit fresh records, has reignited intense debates over the true economic nature of cryptocurrencies. Billionaire Mark Cuban sharply criticized bitcoin, revealing that he liquidated nearly his entire position in the 88,000 to 120,000 dollar range because the asset failed to act as a safe haven and now trades strictly as a high-risk vehicle. The data from 2026 supports these concerns, showing that while traditional gold steadily rallied toward the 5,000 dollar milestone, the primary cryptocurrency consistently lost its footing. The future direction of the markets hinges entirely on Trump's final verdict, as signing the memorandum could depress oil prices and spark a bitcoin recovery, whereas a breakdown in talks risks swiftly erasing Wall Street's recent gains.