Indonesia has blocked access to Polymarket after a market appeared on the platform allowing users to bet on whether President Prabowo Subianto would leave office early. His term runs until 2029, but traders were speculating on possible exit dates before the end of 2026. Media reports put the market’s trading volume at more than $46,000.

Indonesia’s Ministry of Communication and Digital Affairs classified Polymarket as an online gambling service because it enables monetary bets and speculation on uncertain outcomes. Ministry official Alexander Sabar said blockchain technology or crypto assets do not change that classification: online gambling in any form is prohibited in the country.

For Polymarket, the ban is another setback to international expansion. Supporters argue that prediction markets aggregate public expectations and provide useful signals. Regulators, however, increasingly view them as event betting platforms, especially when markets involve politically sensitive outcomes.

The broader lesson is that prediction markets remain in a gray zone between financial information, crypto trading and gambling. The closer they get to politics and sitting leaders, the faster governments are likely to intervene.