The Bank of Russia noted the mixed impact of geopolitical tensions on price dynamics in the Russian economy. According to the analytical bulletin, the final effect remains uncertain due to a combination of pro- and disinflationary factors.

The escalation of the situation in the region at the end of February, including the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, led to an imbalance in commodity markets and rising energy prices. For an exporting country, this may temporarily reduce inflationary pressure due to increased foreign exchange earnings and a stronger national currency.

At the same time, a number of factors are having the opposite effect. These include rising logistics and freight costs, rising prices for imported non-food goods and tourism services. These processes have already begun to impact business costs and consumer prices. The regulator also notes that as the situation normalizes, a reverse effect is possible: lower commodity prices and export revenues could weaken the currency and increase inflationary pressure. In these circumstances, taking secondary effects into account when making monetary policy decisions remains crucial.