The probability of Bitcoin's February correction continuing remains high. Negative technical signals coincided with increased activity among large holders, which intensified pressure on the market and added reasons for caution.

A bearish pennant pattern is forming on the daily BTC chart. This pattern occurs after a sharp decline, when the price consolidates in a narrowing range. If the lower boundary of the pattern is broken, the market often demonstrates a new impulsive decline comparable in scale to the previous movement.

If prices settle below the current support level, the decline could continue towards $55,000–56,000, implying a drop of about 20% from recent levels. An alternative scenario involves a breakout of the upper boundary of the formation and a return above the 20-day moving average near $72,700 in this case, the bearish signal will be canceled.

On-chain metrics also point to increased pressure from large players. According to CryptoQuant, the seven-day average inflow of Bitcoin from large holders to the Binance exchange rose to 0.619 from 0.4 at the beginning of the month. This indicator reflects the share of the ten largest transactions in the total volume of deposits on the exchange. The growth of this indicator is traditionally interpreted as potential preparation for sales and an increase in supply in the market.

At the same time, Matrixport analysts note signs of a possible local bottom forming. The fear and greed index has fallen into the extreme fear zone, and its 21-day moving average has begun to turn upward. Historically, such pronounced pessimism has often preceded phases of recovery. Nevertheless, experts do not rule out a further decline in the short term.

Additional pressure is being exerted by macro factors and stock market dynamics. Despite its previous high correlation with the US technology sector, Bitcoin did not support the recent rebound in stocks after their decline. Outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs also continue, with net withdrawals continuing for the fifth week in a row.

At the time of publication, BTC is trading around $67,900, having lost more than 26% over the past month. Earlier, Glassnode analysts pointed to significant unrealized losses among long-term investors amid the price drop to $60,000.