Tom Lee reveals Bitcoin's math: just 10 best days a year generate the entire annual return

6/30/2026, 01:04 PMЕвгения Слив

Current pessimism in the crypto market has reached levels exceeding the post-FTX collapse sentiment, yet this may be a precursor to a swift recovery. This was stated by BitMine CEO and Fundstrat managing partner Tom Lee during a podcast with Anthony Scaramucci. In his view, investors should not panic over Bitcoin's 50% drawdown, as the leading cryptocurrency remains a hyper-volatile asset for which such pullbacks are the norm, not the end of the bull cycle.

Lee shared key statistics that explain the nature of Bitcoin's returns. According to him, just 10 best trading days in a year generate virtually all of the asset's annual gains. If these days are excluded, Bitcoin's annual return would be negative 27%. The expert drew a parallel with traditional stock markets: a similar omission of the 10 best days crashes the S&P 500's historical 9% annual return to negative 10%. This is precisely why long-term investors should ignore short-term noise and focus on four-year cycles.

Lee also addressed Ethereum. Despite its price underperformance, he emphasized the strength of its fundamentals, particularly in the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA). He also touched on the quantum threat to Bitcoin. In his view, the main problem lies not in the vulnerability of the algorithm itself, but in the existence of old wallets, which hold up to a third of all coins. As radical solutions, he suggested the possibility of a network fork or even the burning of compromised funds.

Lee separately commented on the pressure on Michael Saylor's Strategy. He compared the company's public capital structure to a "lagging bomber" in formation, which becomes an easy target for short-sellers. According to the BitMine CEO, the best defensive strategy in this situation is to build up a cash cushion without selling Bitcoin itself, as liquidating reserves would only exacerbate market panic. BitMine itself adheres to a conservative approach: the company holds about $600 million in cash and has staked 80% of its Ethereum, generating over $250 million in annual profit.

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The material is prepared solely for informational purposes and does not constitute a financial advice or recommendation.

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