Severe volatility in the gold market at the beginning of the year cast doubt on the sustainability of the uptrend. However, UBS analysts believe that the fundamental drivers of growth remain, and the recent decline is more of a technical "reset" than a market regime shift.

After reaching a brief high of $5,594 per ounce on January 29, 2026, prices fell by approximately 9% the following day, reaching intraday lows around $4,400. This sharp move, related to Vincent Heaney's UBS strategy, caused noticeable nervousness among market participants.

In the first few weeks, gold stabilized below $5,000, caught between active buying on the decline and changes in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy expectations.

The bank believes the $4,500–$4,800 range is a period where fundamental factors are once again beginning to dominate. These include the projected two more US rate cuts this year, as well as continued robust demand from central banks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

According to UBS, central banks accumulated 863 tonnes of gold in 2025, and purchases could increase to 950 tonnes in 2026. Analysts estimate that inflows into gold-focused ETFs could reach 825 tonnes.

UBS draws parallels with historical pullbacks, such as those in 1974 and 2020, when prices quickly returned to growth after corrections. The bank maintains its positive forecast: by mid-2026, the price could rise to $6,200 per ounce and consolidate near $5,900 by the end of the year. For investors seeking protection from inflation and geopolitical risks, experts recommend keeping gold in their portfolio at a level of "several percent" of assets.