Bitcoin is showing signs of a late stage of decline, but it is too early to say that a bottom has formed. According to the investment company VanEck, only two‑thirds of the capitulation indicators are currently in play. The company tracks twelve indicators that should reflect the state of the market during strong sell‑offs: Bitcoin’s drawdown, the mining economy, holder behavior, and other metrics. Currently, eight out of twelve indicators are in the capitulation zone, and all twelve have reached such values at least once over the past three months.

At first glance, this looks like a classic signal that the bottom is approaching. The cryptocurrency has already lost about forty‑nine percent of its all‑time high, which was set in October 2025, and the thirty‑day realized volatility has fallen to twenty‑seven point two percent, which is significantly below the long‑term average of about eighty percent. The price has stabilized in the range of approximately sixty‑two thousand to sixty‑six thousand five hundred dollars. However, analysts advise against jumping to conclusions. VanEck experts compared the current situation with previous periods when between eight and twelve capitulation indicators were triggered simultaneously. The average return on Bitcoin ninety days after such signals was twelve point eight percent, and after one hundred and eighty days – thirty‑two percent. For comparison, the asset’s typical historical return over these horizons is fifteen and two‑tenths percent and thirty‑six and three‑tenths percent, respectively. The advantage was evident only over a one‑year period, but analysts warned that the sample size was small and it was impossible to make a confident forecast based on it. In other words, capitulation may indeed mean that most of the sell‑off is behind us, but it does not guarantee an immediate reversal.

At the same time, VanEck expects the current drawdown to be less severe than in previous cycles. Previous major bear markets in Bitcoin were accompanied by declines of 78–94 percent, whereas now the drawdown is about 49 percent. Analysts attribute the possible difference to the emergence of U.S. spot exchange‑traded funds, a significantly larger share of institutional investors, and the absence of systemic collapses. Another factor is the duration of the cycle. The last three bear markets lasted an average of 12.7 months from peak to maximum drawdown. Currently, Bitcoin is in the 10th–11th month after the October peak. Historical models indicate a possible start of the accumulation phase around September to November 2026.

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The material was prepared solely for informational and educational purposes and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation.