Analysts at Wintermute have assessed the current state of the crypto market and concluded that despite signs of capitulation, a true bottom has not yet formed.

Investor sentiment remains depressed: the Fear and Greed Index has been fluctuating in the 18–24 range (extreme fear zone) almost without interruption since October 2025. On-chain data show that the share of coins held at a loss is approaching 50% — a level that historically preceded cyclical lows. However, in previous cycles, this figure reached 60%, so the market may face additional pressure.

Liquidity also remains tight: about $1.8 billion was withdrawn from Bitcoin ETFs this week — one of the largest outflows since the funds were launched. Over‑the‑counter markets show a similar trend.

A key structural shift noted by the analysts is that cryptocurrencies have lost their status as the assets most sensitive to macroeconomics. Now this role has been taken over by AI‑company stocks. Even if macro conditions improve, capital is likely to flow into AI stocks first, and only then into crypto.

Wintermute also analyzed the situation around Strategy (MSTR). STRC shares hit a new all‑time low, and the company's premium to the Bitcoin in its reserves narrowed to 1.0x. The new "Digital Credit Capital Framework" allows the company to sell up to $1.25 billion worth of Bitcoin (about 2.5% of its holdings) to fund obligations and share buybacks — a move that changes the perception of Strategy as a "Bitcoin treasury."

Seasonality is also not on the bulls' side: the market rarely bottoms out during the summer months. A more likely scenario is continued volatility in September–October, with a potential recovery after macroeconomic issues are resolved.

Key catalysts to watch: US labour market data, Bitcoin's ability to hold the $58,000 level and its 200‑week moving average, as well as the performance of STRC shares under the company's new strategy.