Wintermute experts have characterized the recent growth in the crypto-currency market as a "rally of relief" amid weak employment data in the US and "pigeon" signals from the Fed, rather than the start of a structural turnaround. Bitcoin showed a "cleaner" dynamic: whale wallets added over 270,000 BTC close to the 200-week moving average, and the flow of options shifted from safety pools to coils at $60,000-$70,000 levels.

Ethereum has grown stronger, but the background remains worrying: the Ethereum Foundation has cut 20% of employees and 40% of budget, and outflows from ETH-ETFs over the week amounted to ~$345 million. In the Bitcoin ETF, the outflow series was interrupted on July 2 by an inflow of $221.7 million, but accumulated outflows since the beginning of the year reached $5.4 billion, and BlackRock’s IBIT continued to lose funds for the 11th consecutive day.

Wintermute emphasizes: to confirm the reversal, you need stable tributaries over several sessions, not a one-time shorting. Until the picture of capital flows changes substantially, analysts remain cautious in viewing the current rally as a temporary relief.

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The material is prepared solely for informational purposes and does not constitute a financial advice or recommendation.