Analysts at investment firm Bernstein have published an updated forecast for Bitcoin and Strategy shares, according to The Block. Under the base scenario, specialists expect the leading cryptocurrency to return to the $125,000 level by end of 2026, reach a new all-time high of $150,000 by mid-2027, and approach $300,000 at the peak of the next market cycle in 2029.
The key macroeconomic thesis of Bernstein is a shift in the economic regime. In the analysts' assessment, the multi-year era of declining interest rates has come to an end, while governments face rising costs of servicing national debt, which in the United States amounts to approximately $40 trillion. Specialists believe that rising bond yields are forming a cycle of increasing interest expenses and budget deficits. Bernstein expects that monetary regulators will ultimately opt for currency debasement, which could boost demand for scarce assets, including Bitcoin. Analysts also noted that approximately 59% of Bitcoin's supply has not moved in the past 12 months, and active participation through spot ETFs and corporate purchases has helped limit the drawdown to 50% from the October 2025 peak, compared to 75–90% corrections in previous cycles.
In the optimistic scenario, with more aggressive institutional capital inflows, Bernstein allows for Bitcoin growth to $200,000 by mid-2027 and a potential peak of $500,000 in 2029. The firm's long-term target is $1 million by end of 2033.
Regarding Strategy, analysts maintained an "outperform" rating but lowered the target share price from $450 to $350, citing an updated Bitcoin cycle forecast and accelerated new share issuance. Strategy currently holds 840,447 BTC, representing approximately 4% of total supply. Analysts noted that the company's balance sheet provides nearly four years of cash coverage for interest payments and preferred share dividends. In their view, further Bitcoin appreciation and a recovery of STRC shares to $100 could prompt the company to resume active cryptocurrency purchases.
Bernstein previously stated that a delay in passing the CLARITY Act legislative initiative could accelerate the development of digital asset regulation by the SEC and CFTC.
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This material is prepared for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation.