Glassnode analysts have identified obstacles to the continuation of Bitcoin's growth. To maintain upward momentum, the leading cryptocurrency must overcome the $83,000–86,000 resistance zone, where long-term holder (LTH) coins are concentrated and where the estimated breakeven level for spot ETFs is located.
Within this range, LTHs acquired approximately 1.07 million BTC, with the largest cluster of purchases near $85,000. Over the past month, this volume has barely changed. A price return to this range would give holders the opportunity to sell their coins without a loss, which is why analysts view it as a potential source of selling pressure. U.S. exchange-traded funds are tied to roughly the same levels: the estimated breakeven on their holdings is around $86,000. The rebound has reduced the total paper loss from $18 billion in February to $3.9 billion, but has not fully offset it.
However, proximity to the purchase price does not automatically mean mass selling. Glassnode noted that long-term investors are currently less actively locking in profits: their share of total realized gains has fallen from 88% at the August peak to 47%. The Sell-Side Risk Ratio has dropped from the August peak of around 16 to 7 basis points. If buyers manage to push the price higher, short liquidations could provide additional support. Between $82,000 and $86,000, forced short closure levels are concentrated, with estimated volume up 21% since August 19. Their liquidation would require covering purchases and could accelerate the rally.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted that a sustained buyer advantage on the spot market has yet to materialize: the 90-day average CVD remains neutral. He also drew attention to stablecoin reserves on Binance: at their peak they exceeded $50 billion, after which they fell by nearly $7 billion. Over the past month, reserves grew by $1.6 billion, but this did not offset the full outflow over three months — the 90-day change remained negative at -1.6% (reaching -17% at the peak of the correction). U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs provided no additional buying pressure either: on September 8, outflows totaled $46.6 million, and on September 9 another $120.2 million left. Over two sessions, the funds lost $166.8 million.
Nevertheless, Darkfost noted an improvement in the technical picture: the daily RSI reached 67, and the 7- and 21-day EMAs crossed above the 200-day moving average for the first time since November 2025. "A confident break above the $80,000 level should be the key to a full and sustained return of liquidity," he wrote. At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading below that mark — around $77,700, down 1.4% over the past 24 hours.