Following a recent rapid surge, Bitcoin now faces three major macroeconomic events that could determine the asset's trajectory through the end of the current week, CoinDesk reports. These are the July PCE inflation report in the United States, the financial results of Nvidia, and the speech by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the economic symposium in Jackson Hole. Against this backdrop, analysts continue to assess the prospects for a new market cycle of the leading cryptocurrency.
The first significant factor will be the release of the July PCE — the key inflation indicator monitored by the Fed. According to the FactSet consensus forecast, the core PCE reading, which excludes food and energy prices, could come in at 3.2% year-over-year and 0.18% month-over-month. In June, these figures stood at 3.3% and 0.13%, respectively. Data above expectations could heighten concerns about a potential Fed rate hike and put additional pressure on the crypto market. After seven days of trading above $80,000, Bitcoin has already pulled back below $79,000, with technical indicators pointing to overbought conditions. According to CME FedWatch data, the market is pricing in a 40% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September and approximately a 60% probability that rates will remain in the 3.50–3.75% range. "The focus right now is on the July PCE inflation reading and Q2 GDP data, followed by Jackson Hole," said Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Indian crypto exchange Giottus, noting the advisability of a cautious approach to position-building.
The second significant factor will be Nvidia's second-quarter financial results, which the company will release after the market close on Wednesday. Nvidia is one of the primary indicators of demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure. Strong results could ease concerns about large-scale AI capital expenditures and support investor appetite for risk assets. According to TradingView data, the 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and Nvidia shares has remained largely positive, exceeding 0.5 since the start of 2025. The crypto market has already received a strong boost following Bitcoin 's rise from approximately $63,000 to $79,000 during the week of August 17–23, which marked the largest weekly gain for the asset in dollar terms in recorded history. According to Strive CEO Matt Cole, the next cycle could be the "strongest" in Bitcoin 's history.
The third catalyst will be Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on August 28. Investors will be closely watching his stance following the U.S. Treasury's recent plan to increase buybacks of long-term bonds. The Treasury is attempting to restrain the rise in government bond yields, while Warsh has previously advocated for market-driven price formation. A potential signal regarding future monetary policy could determine whether the momentum that helped Bitcoin climb above $80,000 is sustained. Analyst assessments support the case for a continued uptrend. Wintermute revised its Bitcoin outlook to positive following the breakout of a six-week trading range. According to CryptoQuant, the asset needs to consolidate above its 365-day moving average — around $83,000 — to confirm a new market regime. Bernstein analysts expect Bitcoin to reach $125,000 by the end of 2026, $150,000 by mid-2027, and approximately $300,000 at the peak of the next cycle in 2029.
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This material has been prepared for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation.