ARK Invest bets that Tesla could reach $4,400 by 2031

Tesla shares have fallen by 18.16% since the beginning of the year, but ARK Invest's model predicts their value at $4,400 per share by 2031. This is almost 12 times more than the closing price of $368.06 on October 19. According to ARK's estimates, about 80% of Tesla's value in 2031 is related to non-car sales business. The company is expected to sell 10.2 million cars in 2031, which is significantly more compared to 1.6 million in 2025.

This business is robotaxis, Tesla's autonomous taxi service, according to ARK's updated model. It is expected that around 8.1 million robotaxis will generate $753 billion in net ride revenue by 2031. Additionally, the humanoid robot Optimus will add $212 billion from the sale of approximately 1 million units to third-party buyers.

ARK's model also includes a new line of artificial intelligence infrastructure that will enhance Optimus's productivity. Tesla's total AI investments are expected to reach $225 billion by 2031 compared to approximately $7 billion by the end of 2025. Overall, ARK's model anticipates the company's total revenue to reach $1.45 trillion by 2031. These figures update the Tesla model that ARK published in 2024. "ARK estimates that robotaxis will account for about 80% of Tesla's enterprise value in 2031 compared to approximately 90% in 2029, as presented in the previous model published in 2024. The main reason is that we believe Optimus Robot-as-a-Service (RaaS) will evolve as the number of robotaxis grows," wrote ARK analysts Tasha Keeney and Daniel Maguire.

ARK's previous 2024 model valued Tesla at $2,600 per share by 2029 and identified 2025 as the probable launch year for robotaxis. Tesla launched its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, in June 2025 and has since expanded to 7 cities in 3 states. The company's fleet has driven over 1 million driverless miles in about 7 months. However, ARK describes Tesla's robotaxi progress as slower than expected and partially used this pace to determine 2031 as the moment when Optimus may achieve human-level skills.