Analyst Benjamin Cowen has unveiled an updated strategy for Bitcoin in the fourth quarter of 2026, urging investors to move away from forecasting in favor of responding to the current chart structure. He made this statement as Bitcoin tested a crucial technical level around $83,000. The first trigger for revising the market strategy was Bitcoin's movement above its May high on the weekly timeframe, which effectively broke the classic four-year cyclical model. According to the analyst, the closing of the current weekly candle will activate a key trigger that will determine the asset's direction until the end of the year.
Under Cowen's updated model, the next market movement depends on whether Bitcoin can hold its current price levels. The analyst highlights two possible scenarios: bullish, if Bitcoin closes the week and holds above the May high, which would significantly strengthen buyers' positions and lay the groundwork for growth in the fourth quarter; and bearish, if a false breakout occurs and the asset falls back below the May high. In this case, it would face the necessity of undergoing a seasonal correction typical for the end of the year, although it would not drop to new cycle lows.
Cowen emphasizes that in the current market conditions, attempts to predict the exact price direction are counterproductive. "You shouldn't predict what's happening; I think reacting is better in this case," said the analyst. As a basic defensive strategy, investors are still advised to use dollar-cost averaging (DCA) in the second half of the year, leveraging historical seasonal trends to build long-term positions amid increased volatility. Despite potential short-term shocks in October or November, the broader macroeconomic trend remains optimistic, with strong indicators expected in early 2027.