Bitcoin has decreased by 1% over the past 24 hours, but ETF demand supports recovery. In the last eight trading sessions, Bitcoin ETFs have attracted around $3 billion in positive inflows. Despite the recent rise towards $85,000, the current price dynamics remain uncertain. The retreat from this level is perceived as profit-taking after a strong rally. Institutional inflows help maintain a bullish sentiment despite a possible short-term correction.
Currently, market attention is focused on the release of economic data from the US and Bitcoin's ability to hold support if inflation fears prompt investors to reduce their investments in risky assets. The Personal Consumption Expenditures index for August is expected to rise by 0.4% compared to 0.2% last month. Analysts also forecast GDP growth for the second quarter at 1.5%, following 2% in the first quarter. Expectations of higher inflation may heighten expectations of tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. An increase in interest rates could also pressure cryptocurrencies by increasing the attractiveness of fixed-income assets and reducing support for speculative investments. The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October is currently 68%, according to FedWatch data.
Data on inflows into Bitcoin ETFs provide a counterbalance to macroeconomic risks. According to SoSoValue, over eight consecutive trading sessions, spot market Bitcoin ETFs have shown net inflows. About $3 billion has flowed into the products during this period, approaching the amount attracted in August. Despite ETF purchases, there is ongoing pressure from existing holders taking profits, as well as potential changes in leverage and reactions to economic data. The next test is how strong the inflows remain to support demand as Bitcoin approaches its nearest technical levels. Bitcoin's Momentum indicators show a mixed picture. The Relative Strength Index remains close to 60, indicating a broader positive momentum. However, on the four-hour chart, Bitcoin has formed lower highs and lows, suggesting selling pressure on the short-term price. The $80,000-$82,000 level is a potential support zone where buyers may return. Strengthening this zone could enhance the consolidation scenario, while a break below this level would weaken the proposed setup. If Bitcoin holds the $80,000-$82,000 zone and buying momentum improves, the next significant test will be another attempt to surpass $85,000.
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