Bitcoin's Decline Intensifies Investor Pessimism Amid US Inflation

October inflation in the US increased pressure on Bitcoin. The Consumer Price Index rose by 0.4% for the month instead of the expected 0.3%, and the core index increased by 0.3% against the forecast of 0.2%. Following the report, traders raised their estimates of the likelihood of the Fed tightening policy in December, worsening conditions for risky assets.

According to Santiment data from November 10, there were only 0.82 positive comments per negative one in Bitcoin discussions on social platforms. Analysts believe that pronounced pessimism sometimes precedes market recovery: when expectations are already low, even moderate improvement can change sentiment. However, this indicator reflects the tone of messages rather than the actual volume of purchases, so it does not by itself confirm that a price bottom has been reached.

Other indicators do not yet provide a clear signal for a reversal. CryptoQuant reported that over 60 days, the market capitalization of the stablecoin USDT decreased by $6.6 billion, which may indicate a reduction in available liquidity. According to Ali Martinez, large holders reduced their balances by more than 34,000 BTC, or $2.6 billion, over the week. The change in balances does not prove that all these coins were sold on exchanges.

Additional pressure was created by the liquidation of long positions in the crypto derivatives market. High leverage amplifies the effects of sharp price fluctuations, and closing positions can accelerate the decline. Thus, the negative sentiments that Santiment views as a potential recovery signal are currently accompanied by a weakening of liquidity and demand. The further dynamics of Bitcoin will depend, among other things, on the Fed's decisions and the emergence of sustained buyer interest.