Bitcoin is stuck at around $77,000 as investors await the Federal Reserve's decision on the key interest rate, scheduled for September 16. In the current conditions, spot demand for the asset remains weak. This hinders its upward movement; however, according to COINDREAM data, this market structure resembles the period from January to March, when quotes mainly changed under the pressure of derivative financial instruments. "Rallies without sustainable spot market demand appear less convincing. And demand there remains weak, resulting in the current growth lacking solid foundational support," the company noted. According to experts, in the current conditions, risk management takes priority over expectations of a prolonged increase in Bitcoin quotes.
Analyst Alex Adler Jr. noted that over the past day, the pressure index in derivatives went deeper into the negative - from -25.36 to -60.8. The indicator has remained below zero since September 6. From the same moment, the Coinbase Premium Index has been in the negative zone. The metric indicates seller dominance but does not allow determining whether short positions are being increased or long ones are being closed. "The price withstands pressure, but the data does not yet indicate buyer dominance. A sustained move above zero in the derivatives index with a return to the positive zone of the 48-hour average Coinbase premium will signal improvement. The main risk is a resumption of price decline if negative pressure persists," Adler Jr. emphasized.
According to Santiment data, market participants conducted de-risking in advance - as early as last week. From September 3 to 11, open interest in Bitcoin fell from 321,497 BTC to 278,151 BTC, by 13.5%. At the same time, the price over the same period decreased by only 5%, excluding the effect of cost revaluation. The current positioning is about 20% below the levels preceding the mid-August rally. The decline stopped on September 11 and has since shown slight growth over two sessions. "News headlines will appear on Tuesday, positioning changed last week," Santiment noted.
Recall that CryptoQuant concluded that to confirm a new bull market, Bitcoin needs to consolidate above $81,700.
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