Bitwise Raises Bitcoin Price Forecast to $1.6 Million by 2036

Bitwise has increased its 10-year Bitcoin price forecast from $1.3 million to $1.6 million by 2036, despite a challenging year for the asset marked by price declines and an uncertain macroeconomic environment.

In the updated report on long-term capital market assumptions, compiled by Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan and Head of Research Ryan Rasmussen, the same model as last year was used, but with the latest market and economic data. Interestingly, instead of lowering expectations after Bitcoin's drop of more than 50% between October 2025 and June 2026, when it fell below $59,000, they became even more optimistic.

The updated forecast also increases the assumed average annual growth rate of Bitcoin from 28.3% to 34.3%. Hougan noted that initially, he was concerned that the new data would force them to lower the forecast to $1 million or below, especially given the deteriorating market sentiment, persistent inflation, rising interest rates, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. However, "the numbers told a different story." The increase in the target price is attributed to two factors: the size of the markets Bitcoin can capture and the share of those markets it can occupy.

Bitwise increased its estimate of the store of value asset market over the next decade from $91 trillion to $110 trillion, reflecting growing investor concerns about the ongoing devaluation of fiat currencies and high inflation. The forecast for the institutional investment market also increased from $216 trillion to $303 trillion. Other potential markets, including offshore assets and emerging market currencies, have also expanded. A larger addressable market implies a higher potential Bitcoin price if it can capture a significant share of this market. The second factor is Bitcoin's ability to gain market share. According to Hougan, several events have strengthened this scenario. Asset management platforms such as Wells Fargo and Merrill Lynch have started moving towards Bitcoin, while central banks and sovereign wealth funds have also begun to converge with it. Bitcoin's cyclical volatility continues to decrease.

Despite these developments, Bitwise left its assumptions about Bitcoin's share of each market unchanged, without increasing them. Hougan also acknowledged the counterarguments. Much of the money flowing into store of value assets is directed towards gold rather than Bitcoin; the recent downturn has once again highlighted the crypto asset's vulnerability to sharp losses; and inflows into ETFs have slowed. However, he pointed to several events indicating that the market has become more resilient. Bitcoin's correlation with gold has increased, its 53% drop was less pronounced than in previous bear markets, and institutional investors continued to increase their share despite the slowdown in ETF purchases. Bitcoin's share of the store of value market has grown from less than 1% ten years ago to over 5% today.