BlackRock has maintained a positive assessment of Bitcoin’s role in investment portfolios despite its price falling by more than fifty percent from its October high. Analysts described the sell‑off as a consequence of deleveraging and capital reallocation, rather than a fundamental change in the investment thesis for the first cryptocurrency. According to the asset manager’s updated ten‑year analysis, a hypothetical addition of one to two percent Bitcoin to a traditional portfolio consisting of sixty percent stocks and forty percent bonds would historically have improved its risk‑adjusted returns.

After reaching its low at the end of 2022, Bitcoin rose in price by approximately seven hundred percent and reached an all‑time high in October 2025. By early June 2026, the price had retraced by about half, falling below $60,000. According to analysts, the total open interest in Bitcoin futures exceeded $90 billion by early October 2025. The introduction of additional tariffs by the United States against China triggered a sell‑off in global markets, and open interest in the first cryptocurrency decreased by approximately twenty billion dollars over the course of a day, which was the largest one‑day drop in the indicator. BlackRock considers the situation to be primarily a positioning correction, during which the market shed a significant portion of the accumulated leverage.

Analysts identified another factor contributing to the pressure as a slowdown in institutional demand and capital rotation. From January 2024 to autumn 2025, spot exchange products based on Bitcoin attracted about sixty billion dollars; however, after the October reversal, the cumulative outflow amounted to approximately five billion dollars. At the same time, inflows into funds related to artificial intelligence surged sharply, attracting more than forty‑six billion dollars between October 2025 and July 2026. BlackRock believes that the growing interest in stocks of companies with exposure to AI competed with Bitcoin for investment capital. Another source of pressure was the change in investors’ attitudes towards companies with Bitcoin on their balance sheets, in particular towards the firm Strategy. At the end of May 2026, the company conducted a test sale of thirty‑two bitcoins for approximately two and a half million dollars, which had a negative impact on market sentiment.

Despite the correction, BlackRock retained its thesis about Bitcoin as a potential diversification tool, describing its behavior as having a dual nature. Under some conditions, the asset moves in line with the risk market, while in others it can act as a defensive instrument. Over the long term, the average ten‑year correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index is only eighteen hundredths. The company considers short‑term correlation spikes to be episodic rather than structural. The report also notes a gradual decline in the volatility of the first cryptocurrency: as of the end of June 2026, the realized twelve‑month volatility was about forty percent. BlackRock attributes the long‑term decline in the indicator to the development of market infrastructure, the emergence of perpetual futures, regulated contracts, and U.S. spot exchange products. At the same time, the management company explicitly states that the study is not an investment recommendation and warns of the high risks associated with digital assets.

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The material was prepared solely for informational and educational purposes and is not financial advice or a recommendation.