Cardano rose by 3%, but SuperTrend signals a drop to $0.17

The price of the cryptocurrency Cardano (ADA) increased by approximately 3% on October 21, 2026, reaching $0.2235. However, technical signals indicate the possibility of further decline to the $0.17 level if support at $0.21 is breached. Analyst Ali Martinez warned that in this case, the drop would be approximately 24%. The SuperTrend indicator signal has turned bearish, reminiscent of a similar signal on May 22, which preceded a 46% correction. However, Martinez emphasizes that a repeat of such a drop is not guaranteed: "There is a sell signal, but no breach yet."

Currently, the metrics of wallets controlling between 100 million and 1 billion ADA remain relatively stable over the past 10 days. This does not provide clear signs of whether large holders are preparing to buy or sell assets. However, this stability follows a period of selling: on October 13, it was reported that whales reduced positions by more than 110 million ADA over five days, and the number of daily active addresses fell from 27,248 to 15,977, a decrease of 41.36%.

Important resistance levels to watch are $0.2255 and $0.2394, with the next target being $0.2488. Closing above $0.2255 will bring Cardano above the nearest moving average, but a trend reversal requires a weekly close above $0.31. If the price falls below $0.21, it will open the way for a decline to $0.17. The support level is near $0.2200, as well as at the psychological mark of $0.2000. A sustained breach of these levels will open the path to $0.2000 and further to Martinez's target of $0.17.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding at 44.35 – below the signal average of 46.09 and the neutral 50, indicating weak momentum without oversold conditions. Recent market data shows ADA trading volume around $254 million, and its market capitalization is approaching $8.4 billion. Meanwhile, over seven days, ADA is still losing 4.99% despite Wednesday's recovery.

Additionally, the Cardano Foundation presented its response to the MiCA consultation on October 21, where it opposed the introduction of separate regulatory regimes for decentralized finance and staking, emphasizing the need to apply existing financial rules. The consultation covers topics such as DeFi, staking, lending, stablecoins, and tokenized assets, although no legislative changes have been adopted at this time.